What would happen if the United States decides to attack Iran or assassinate its leader?

This Friday marks a week of attacks between Iran and Israel in what is already the worst military escalation ever recorded between the two countries, and with no sign that the bombings will cease for now. There hasn't been a single day in the last seven where a missile hasn't fallen on Iranian and Israeli soil, but "there are no updated figures on the number of dead and injured" and the two governments are limiting the information that the media can get from the attacks, while raising accusations and the belligerent tone. The President of the United States, Donald Trump, stated last Wednesday that he has not yet made a decision on whether to join the Israeli attacks against Iran. "I have ideas about what to do, but I have not made a final decision because things change," Trump explained in a press conference in the Oval Office of the White House. In addition, Trump called the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, a “easy target”, however, he said they have no plans to eliminate him, at least not for now. “We know exactly where the so-called ‘supreme leader’ is hiding. He is an easy target, but he is safe there. We are not going to eliminate him (kill!), at least not for now. But we do not want missiles fired at civilians or American soldiers. Our patience is running out. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”, Trump wrote in a Truth Social post. In that sense, Trump has decided to give himself two weeks to make the decision. In a message conveyed by White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt, Trump stated that "based on the fact that there is a substantial possibility of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future, I will make my decision whether or not to participate in the next two weeks". Iran has indicated that it remains willing to talk, and even an attack would not necessarily eliminate the prospects of returning to the negotiating table.

What would happen if Trump decides to attack?

Vali Nasr, an Iran expert and professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, cited by The New York Times, said that if the Trump administration makes an attractive offer after an attack against Iran, such as large-scale sanctions relief or peace guarantees, there is still the possibility that Iran will consider making concessions. “Is there any offer on the table that the Iranian people can accept at this moment?”, he said. “If it's just punishment, then they're going to fight.”

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Another scenario is the possibility that Iran will opt for nuclear activity. All eyes are on the Fordow nuclear facility. But it is possible that Iran has secret nuclear sites intended to produce weapons that the United States and Israel are unaware of, although no public evidence of such places has appeared.

If they exist, Iran could use what remains to try to accelerate its nuclear program after a U.S. attack.

The war could get bigger

Although Iran has responded to Israeli attacks with its own missiles and threats, it has refrained from attacking US soldiers or bases in the Middle East. Nor has it attacked Arab countries allied with the United States, such as Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates. It has also not driven up global oil prices by closing or harassing traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil transport channel south of Iran. But at least one Iranian official has warned that Iran could do so if the United States goes to war. The objective of the attack, the alliances involved, and the nature of the conflict would determine the international response. Relations with allies and adversaries would be significantly affected. Existing international treaties and agreements could be affected or violated.